Eco 2011/11 Department of Economics Structural Vector Autoregressions with Markov Switching: Combining Conventional with Statistical Identification of Shocks

In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis a Markov regime switching (MS) property can be exploited to identify shocks if the reduced form error covariance matrix varies across regimes. Unfortunately, these shocks may not have a meaningful structural economic interpretation. It is discussed how statistical and conventional identifying information can be combined. The discussion is based on a VAR model for the US containing oil prices, output, consumer prices and a short-term interest rate. The system has been used for studying the causes of the early millennium economic slowdown based on traditional identification with zero and long-run restrictions and using sign restrictions. We find that previously drawn conclusions are questionable in our framework.